Banknifty analysis for 24 sept 2025

 Analysis of OI Data and Changes

The options chain and OI analytics are for Bank Nifty weekly expiry on 30 Sep 2025, with spot at 55,509.75 (up 0.41% or +225 points). OI is displayed in lots, with 'L' denoting lakhs (e.g., 1.69L = 169,000 lots). 

Key OI Highlights (30 Sep Expiry):

Total OI: ~1.86 Cr lots for calls vs. ~2.09 Cr lots for puts (initial shows puts slightly higher overall, but histogram suggests calls dominating ATM/OTM).

Put-Call Ratio (PCR): Current 0.67 (down from 1.34 earlier in the week per OI vs. Time chart). A PCR <1 indicates bullish sentiment (more call writing/interest than puts), with the ratio declining sharply since 19 Sep, signaling increasing call dominance and potential upside momentum.

Highest Call OI Strikes (resistance indicators, as call writers defend these levels):

55,500: ~9.78L lots (highest ATM concentration).

55,600: ~5.16L lots.

55,700: ~6.13L lots.

Total calls OI buildup concentrated 55,500–55,700 (~20L+ lots combined).

Highest Put OI Strikes (support indicators, as put writers defend these):

55,200: ~2.08L lots (strongest OTM put wall).

55,500: ~2.57L lots (ATM overlap).

55,800: ~2.69L lots (unexpected OTM buildup, possibly hedging).

Total puts OI more spread but peaks at 55,200–55,500 (~5L+ lots).

OI Changes (Daily Net):

Calls: Heavy unwinding (negative changes) at ATM/near-ATM: -1.33L at 55,500, -7.52L at 55,900, -1.57L at 56,000. This suggests call shorts covering amid the upmove (bullish signal, as reduced call OI eases downward pressure).

Puts: Mixed but net buildup at OTM supports: +4.87L at 55,200 (defensive buying), +2.08L at 55,300, but unwinding at 55,400 (-1.11L). Overall put OI stable/increasing slightly lower, indicating support hunting.

From the OI Change bar chart: Largest red bars (call unwinds) at 55,500 and 56,000; green bars (put builds) at 55,200–55,300 and 55,600. Net effect: Bullish unwind in calls, mild bearish hedge in lower puts.

OI Analytics Insights:

OI Change Bar Chart: Confirms call liquidation above spot (bullish), put accumulation below (supportive). Multi-strike OI line shows spot hugging the 55,600 CE closely, with OI spiking there—watch for resistance test.

OI & PCR vs. Time: Calls OI (red) rising steadily from 16–22 Sep, puts (green) flat; PCR (purple) dropping to 0.67 signals shift from neutral to bullish. Total OI ramp-up to 2.09 Cr puts but calls catching up.

Open Interest Histogram: Calls dominate 55,500–55,700 (red bars peak ~15L at 55,500); puts peak at 55,200 (~10–15L green bar). Implies downside protection at lower strikes, upside cap higher.

Overall OI bias: Bullish. Unwinding calls + low PCR suggest reduced selling pressure; put builds provide floor. However, high put OI at 55,800 (OTM) hints at hedging against overextension.

Candlestick Chart Patterns Analysis

The 15-min candlestick chart (date range: 19–23 Sep 2025, up to 19:43 IST) shows a short-term uptrend from ~55,400 open on 23 Sep:

Overall Pattern: Bullish continuation with a minor flag/pullback. Price opened near 55,400, dipped to ~55,350 (wicky low), then rallied with 3–4 consecutive green engulfing candles to 55,509. This forms a "bull flag" consolidation after a prior impulse up from 55,200 (19 Sep low).

Key Candles:

Recent (3:15–3:30 PM): Strong green marubozu (full body up ~100 points), indicating buyer control.

Prior pullback (2 PM): Small doji + red hammer near 55,400—rejection of lower levels, bullish reversal hint.

Volume: Rising on ups (pink/blue bars increasing), fading on downs—confirms momentum.

Indicators: RSI ~65 (not overbought), MACD bullish crossover. Horizontal lines (yellow/orange) align with OI strikes: Support at 55,400/55,159; resistance at 55,555/55,662.

Bias: Intraday bullish, but watch for flag breakdown if below 55,400 (bear trap risk low due to OI support).

Major Support and Resistance Levels

Based on OI concentrations, chart lines, and price action:

Major Support:

Immediate: 55,400 (high put OI ~2.35L + chart low; put LTP 176.20 suggests defense).

Stronger: 55,200 (max put OI ~2.08L; prior session low).

Deeper: 55,000 (secondary put wall ~1.69L).

Major Resistance:

Immediate: 55,600 (high call OI ~5.16L + chart line; call LTP 246.00).

Stronger: 55,700 (call OI ~6.13L buildup).

Extended: 55,835/55,900 (call unwinds + chart highs).

These align with the chart's horizontal bands (e.g., 55,400–55,555 range).

Perfect Intraday Trade Levels (Minimal Stop-Loss)

Given the bullish OI/PCR bias and flag pattern, focus on long bias (buy calls or spot) for intraday scalps. Aim for minimal SL (20–50 points) to keep risk low (~0.1–0.2% per trade). Expiry is 30 Sep, so theta decay is low—favor ATM/OTM calls. Avoid overnights.

Recommended Setup: Breakout Long (Buy Call)

Entry: Above 55,550 (break of minor resistance + recent high; confirms flag upside).

Strike Suggestion: 55,500 CE (LTP ~437.90; high liquidity, delta ~0.55 for quick moves).

Target: 55,650 (next resistance; ~100-point spot move = ~150–200 point option gain).

Stop-Loss: 55,500 (below entry candle low; 50-point risk = ~80–100 point option SL).

R:R Ratio: 1:2 (risk 50 points for 100+ reward).

Why Minimal SL?: Tight to recent doji support; OI unwinds reduce whipsaw risk. Position size: 1–2% account risk.

Invalidation: If PCR spikes >0.8 or spot <55,400 (shift to neutral).

Alternative: Dip Buy (If Pullback)

Entry: 55,450–55,500 (near support; buy on green candle confirmation).

Strike: 55,500 CE or 55,400 CE (LTP ~506 for 55,400; cheaper premium).

Target: 55,600.

Stop-Loss: 55,400 (50-point risk).

R:R: 1:2+.

Thanks