Banknifty analysis for 23 sept 2025

 Analysis of OI Data, Change in OI, and Candlestick Chart Patterns

The BANKNIFTY trading at 55,284.75 (down 0.31%), with data for the 30 Sep 2025 expiry (approximately 8 days away). The analysis is based on the option chain, OI changes, total OI metrics (including PCR), and the 15-minute candlestick chart. I'll break it down step by step.

Candlestick Chart Patterns

The 15-minute chart spans recent trading sessions (dates labeled 16, 18, 22, likely September), showing a clear short-term downtrend. Key observations:

Overall Trend: Price opened higher around 55,900–55,800 earlier in the period but has since formed lower highs and lower lows, dropping to the current level of 55,284.75. This indicates selling pressure and bearish momentum.

Recent Candles: The latest candles are predominantly red (bearish), with long wicks on the upside suggesting rejection at higher levels. There's a potential bearish engulfing pattern in the recent sessions, where a green candle is followed by a larger red one overwhelming it, signaling continuation of the downmove.

Volume: The volume bars (blue/purple) show spikes during down moves, confirming increased selling interest. The chart also has horizontal orange lines marking key levels, with price bouncing off lower ones but failing to hold highs.

Pattern Implications: This resembles a bearish channel or descending triangle, with resistance capping upside attempts. No strong reversal patterns (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) are visible, reinforcing a bearish bias for intraday.

OI Data and Change in OI

Open Interest (OI) represents positions held by market participants. High OI in puts suggests support (put sellers expect price to stay above the strike), while high OI in calls suggests resistance (call sellers expect price to stay below the strike). Changes in OI indicate building or unwinding positions:

Key OI Levels (from option chain):

Highest put OI: 55,000 strike (14.91 lakh), followed by 55,500 (7.05 lakh) and 54,900 (3.47 lakh). This points to strong put writing (bullish for support).

Highest call OI: 55,500 strike (11.22 lakh), followed by 55,600 (6.95 lakh) and 55,800 (6.28 lakh). This indicates heavy call writing (bearish for resistance).

Change in OI (from option chain and OI Change chart):

Calls: Mixed but net positive (+87.17K overall from the analytics chart). Notable builds at higher strikes (e.g., +87,170 at 55,500 call, +2.16 lakh at 55,600 call), suggesting fresh call selling (bearish, as sellers bet against upside). Lower strikes show unwinding (e.g., -17,045 at 54,900 call), which is mildly bullish but outweighed by higher strike builds.

Puts: Net negative (-45.58K overall). Builds at ATM/ITM strikes (e.g., +40,915 at 55,000 put, +50,295 at 55,300 put), indicating fresh put selling (bullish for support). Unwinding at OTM strikes (e.g., -45,575 at 55,500 put, -19,880 at 55,700 put), which is bearish as it reduces downside protection.

Overall: The OI Change chart shows red bars (call changes) mostly positive/upward at higher strikes, and green bars (put changes) negative overall. This net build in calls and unwind in puts signals bearish sentiment, as market participants are positioning for limited upside and potential downside.

PCR (Put-Call Ratio): From the analytics, total put OI is 1.79 crore, call OI is 1.88 crore, giving PCR = 0.95 (slightly below 1, indicating mild bearish bias). The OI & PCR vs Time chart shows PCR declining from ~1.25 (15 Sep) to ~1.02 (19 Sep), trending toward bearish. The Multi Strike OI chart shows price (blue line) declining alongside fluctuating OI (red line for sample strike like 55,300 CE), confirming no strong bullish buildup.

Major Support and Resistance Levels

Combining OI (where high concentrations act as magnets/barriers) and chart (visual levels from horizontals and swing points):

Support Levels:

Major: 55,000 (highest put OI at 14.91 lakh + chart low near 55,000 orange line; strong buying interest expected here).

Minor: 55,215 (recent swing low on chart + orange line; immediate cushion), 55,100 (secondary put OI cluster + chart level).

Resistance Levels:

Major: 55,500 (highest call OI at 11.22 lakh + chart orange line; heavy selling expected).

Minor: 55,666 (chart high wick rejection + orange line), 55,600 (secondary call OI at 6.95 lakh). Current price (55,284.75) is trading in a range between minor support (55,215) and major resistance (55,500), with bearish tilt.

Percentage of Bullish, Bearish, or Flat Based on OI Data

Based solely on OI metrics (PCR, total OI, and changes):

Bullish: 40% (supported by put OI builds at lower strikes like 55,000, providing downside protection, but weakened by put unwinding overall).

Bearish: 60% (driven by call OI builds at higher strikes, net positive call changes, net negative put changes, and PCR <1 indicating more call positioning).

Flat: 0% (no balanced OI across strikes or stable PCR suggesting consolidation; momentum leans directional).

This is a qualitative estimate derived from the data—bearish elements dominate due to the net positioning favoring limited upside.

Perfect Intraday Trade with Minimal Stop-Loss

Given the bearish bias (downtrend on chart, PCR <1, net bearish OI changes), the optimal intraday trade is buy the 55,300 put option (near-ATM for good delta sensitivity). Here's the rationale and setup:

Why this trade? Current price (55,284.75) is below 55,300, but the chart shows downside momentum with no immediate reversal. Put buying limits risk to premium paid, aligns with bearish sentiment, and benefits from potential volatility increase. LTP of the 55,300 put is 263.45 (from chain), offering decent intrinsic value if price drops.

Entry: Buy at current LTP (~263–270, assuming minor fluctuation).

Target: 200–220 points profit on the option (aiming for price to hit support at 55,215 or 55,100), which could translate to option value rising to 350–400.

Stop-Loss: Set at option value dropping to 230 (equivalent to underlying price breaking above 55,400, a minor chart resistance with low volume). This keeps SL minimal (~30–40 points risk on the option, or ~15% of premium), as it's tight to the recent swing high on the 15m chart.

Risk-Reward: 1:2+ (risk 30–40 points on option, reward 100+ points). Exit by end of day to avoid overnight theta decay.

Alternatives if risk-averse: If you prefer no directional bias, sell a strangle (sell 55,500 call + 55,000 put), but this has higher risk and isn't purely intraday-friendly. Avoid if not experienced with greeks.

Thanks