Banknifty analysis for 15 july 2025

 Bank Nifty Breaks Its Triangle – Here’s the High-Probability Intraday Play (5-Min Chart)

🔍 Quick context

After spending more than a week coiling inside an ever-tightening triangle, Bank Nifty finally cracked the lower rising trend-line in yesterday’s late session and closed just beneath it (≈ 56 765). At first glance the damage looks minor—only −0.02 % on the day—but the structure has changed:

Pattern shift: the market moved from “compression” to “expansion” mode.

Sentiment flip: option writers rushed up on calls (56 800-57 000) and down on puts (56 500).

That push-and-pull leaves us with a clean bearish continuation setup for the next intraday window.

1️⃣ Support & resistance map

Zone Level(s) Evidence

Immediate ceiling 56 780-56 860 Breakdown retest + fresh CE OI at 56 800

Second resistance 57 000 Highest monthly call OI (12.9 L)

Nearest floor 56 600 Minor price shelf + VWAP confluence

Major support 56 500 Largest put OI base (6.7 L at 56500 PE)

Stretch target 56 300 Old swing pivot & low PCR pocket

Put-call ratio (PCR) slipped to 0.81, underscoring bearish bias.---

2️⃣ The 5-minute trend-continuation plan

1. Bias – Stay short while the index fails to close above 56 900 on a 5-min candle.

2. Entry window – Look for a rejection wick or bearish engulfing pattern inside 56 780-56 860.

3. Targets –

T1: 56 600 – book half, move stop to breakeven.

T2: 56 500 – trail stop by 15 pts thereafter.

Stretch: 56 300 if momentum accelerates.

4. Invalidation – Hard exit on a 5-min close > 56 900 or a sudden spike of put OI at 56 700-56 500 (sign of absorption).

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3️⃣ Option strike with the least time-decay bite

Strike Why it’s optimal for intraday

56 700 PE • One-strike ITM/ATM when entry triggers ⇒ delta ≈ −0.55 → quick payoff.<br>• OI ≈ 2.6 L ⇒ tight spreads & liquidity.<br>• Limited theta erosion over a single session.<br>• Vega neutral—you’re close to the money, so IV spikes help rather than hurt.

Backup 56 800 PE if index is still > 56 750 at entry time.

Avoid Deep OTM PEs (≤ 56 300) – low delta, you “bleed” while waiting for the move.

Risk tweak: when T1 hits, sell half and keep a free-ride on the rest; worst-case you’re flat, best-case you ride the cascade.

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4️⃣ Real-time validation checklist ✅

What to watch Acceptable reading

5-min RSI Stays below 55 on the retest

Bank-Nifty breadth ≥ 6 of 12 constituents in red

Option tape Net call additions at 56 800-57 000 continue; no big put build-up at 56 500-

📝 Final thoughts

Breakdown-and-retest plays on a major index rarely give spotless textbook entries; volatility can spike right where you want to sell. Focus on location over perfection: you want to be a seller near the old support line, not 100 points lower.

Tame your size, respect the 5-minute close above 56 900, and you’ll avoid the classic intraday whipsaw. Happy trading, and may your delta stay sharp while theta sleeps! 🚀

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Disclosure: This post is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.